:
Thank you, and good morning.
[Translation]
Mr. Chair, distinguished members of the committee, thank you for inviting me here to talk about the role that my group, the assistant deputy minister of Infrastructure and Environment, plays in the readiness of the Royal Canadian Air Force.
As Lieutenant-General Michael Hood told you when he spoke to you on April 14, readiness includes our people, our aircraft and systems, and the other resources that together provide the air-power capabilities the government requires to serve Canadians and Canadian interests. Infrastructure is a large portfolio of these other resources and that my group is concerned with.
[English]
On behalf of the Department of National Defence, ADM(IE) manages over $26 billion in real property assets, including buildings and roads, hangars and airfields, and runways across Canada. Simply put, if these facilities are not designed, built, and maintained to meet modern standards, the readiness of our air force is severely compromised.
Allow me to touch briefly on how ADM(IE) supports the air force in its mandate to provide reconnaissance, mobility, support, humanitarian aid, search and rescue, and force capabilities to the Government of Canada. Since 2014 ADM(IE) has been gradually assuming management responsibility for defence infrastructure, and on April 1, 2016, we achieved full operational capability when we became the sole custodian of over $26 billion in defence real property holdings on behalf of the Canadian Armed Forces and the commanders of the army, the navy, and the air force.
This centralization will allow the Commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force to concentrate on preparing and operating his air force without having to plan and operate a diverse and complex infrastructure base. Ultimately my role is to ensure proper prioritization of DND infrastructure, resources, support operations, and training, and to reflect the evolving needs and constraints of the department. For example, in the past General Hood had to ensure that he had functioning runways and hangars, but he also had to ensure that the local armouries were in good shape, that the hospital was maintained properly, and that roofs weren't leaking. ADM(IE) manages that now, prioritizing DND infrastructure resources. Centralization will permit ADM(IE) to allocate those resources more effectively, bringing the right resources to the right assets at the right time.
To support ADM(IE) in this endeavour, on 24 November 2014 the Government of Canada launched the federal infrastructure investments program, or FIIP, a plan to invest $452 million in new funding over two years to repair and upgrade Canadian Armed Forces facilities across Canada. In Trenton we're undertaking $234 million in investment to provide a reconfigured runway layout, new aircraft parking space, proper drainage, and upgraded lighting systems.
In Comox we're undertaking $52 million in investments. In addition to that, we've invested $18 million in FIIP funding for utility upgrades, flood control measures, shoreline erosion protection, military housing, and hangar and airfield repairs.
In Cold Lake we're undertaking $132 million in investments, improving the roads and utilities, runways and airfield, and constructing a new health care centre, with a total investment of just under $18 million in FIIP funding.
In Bagotville we're undertaking $175 million in investments. In addition to that, we will construct a new headquarters building and improve runways, airfields, and housing with a total investment of $16 million in FIIP funding.
In Winnipeg we're undertaking $68 million in investments and will be investing $4 million of FIIP funding to repair hangar doors and make roof and lighting repairs, etc.
In the north we've created a new aerodrome engineering section that will allow us to maintain critical air power assets in this remote region.
[Translation]
It is projects such as these, Mr. Chair, that will allow the assistant deputy minister of Infrastructure and Environment to focus on rationalizing and sustaining National Defence's real property portfolio while balancing evolving military requirements, financial responsibilities and effective stewardship of resources.
:
Mr. Chair, and distinguished members of the committee, I'd like to add my thanks for the invitation to appear before you to answer questions relating to your study of the defence of North America.
[Translation]
As assistant deputy minister, Material, for the Department of National Defence, I am responsible for the acquisition and support of all military equipment. In other words, I focus on the technical readiness of the Canadian Armed Forces. I also oversee the material certification of military equipment in the same way that the Department of Transport does for the civilian equivalent.
[English]
With a budget of approximately $6 billion a year, a team of 4,000 people dedicated to the task, and over 12,000 contracts under management with my colleagues at PSPC, the work is complex and plentiful. The vast majority of procurements unfold as planned on an ongoing basis. Procurements for key equipment are, however, in a different category.
Defence procurement is a complex undertaking, particularly for large systems such as aircraft, ships, and armoured vehicles. The decisions made on equipment are often half-century ones. The next combat ships we deliver will still be in service in 2070. Many of the aircraft we are pursuing will be flying beyond the middle of this century.
At the same time, the threats this equipment will face are continuously evolving. This means that we must strike a balance between the anticipated life of the equipment measured in decades with the need to update the equipment on a continuous basis to meet evolving threats. This also means that the supply chain and support mechanisms must be adaptable and enduring to meet the needs of the Canadian Forces.
Equipment is de facto never in its final configuration, as upgrading aircraft, ships, and combat vehicles is a continuous process and bringing the new configurations into service is a complex undertaking that requires very close cooperation with various elements of the Department of National Defence.
[Translation]
That said, we continue to advance and deliver on various programs that will continue to increase the capability of your Canadian Armed Forces. From an aerospace perspective this includes:
[English]
the delivery of the fifth C-17 aircraft and bringing that project to effective project closure; the introduction of the C-130J aircraft and their upgrades to the block 7.1 configuration; the enhancements of the Aurora aircraft and their life extension, with block III aircraft well into delivery and block IV in definition; the introduction of the Chinook helicopters back into the order of battle; the transition to the Cyclone maritime helicopter, with training on the block 1.1 aircraft to start in the coming months; the completion of the evaluation process for the fixed-wing search and rescue aircraft to be completed this summer.
DND is not only introducing these aircraft into service, but is also well positioned to provide the necessary support to ensure their appropriate operational employment.
We in the materiel group are very proud to be able to work closely with the Canadian Armed Forces in the defence of Canada and Canadian values abroad.
[Translation]
Thank you for allowing me to provide opening comments.
I would be pleased to answer your questions.
:
Good morning everyone. It's a pleasure to be here.
I'm Lisa Campbell, assistant deputy minister at Public Services and Procurement Canada.
Governments around the world spend a lot of money on goods and services to meet the needs of their citizens and Canada is no exception.
[Translation]
The amounts paid by Canada's provincial, territorial and municipal governments combined total over $100 billion a year.
[English]
Federal procurement spending contributes close to 1% of Canada's gross domestic product annually. Over the past decade, the federal government has issued more than 500,000 contracts on average per year, worth about $18 billion annually. This spending is used to acquire a vast array of goods and services, ranging from office supplies to information technology, to military equipment such as aircraft and tanks. About half of the federal spend is on defence spending, and the other half is on everything else the government needs to function, such as bridges, infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and vaccines.
A little-known fact that I want to share with you today is that over 80% of federal contracting is done by government departments themselves. At Public Services and Procurement Canada, we only handle 12% of the contracts, but that represents 80% of the money. We focus, I think appropriately, on the most complex procurements. That's where we put our specialized contracting expertise.
Our basic precept in Canada, based in law and policy, is that federal procurement should be fair, open, and transparent, and provide best value to Canada. We have heard from industry—and we engage with them regularly through supplier advisory committees and a recently formed defence industry group—that it's overly complex and administratively burdensome. We agree. Our has a mandate to modernize procurement, and that, quite frankly, is a business priority for us.
Let me spend a moment on some of the complex dynamics at play in procurement. Buying things, in and of itself, isn't complicated. It's what we try to do during the process that makes it complex. Canada is part of several trade agreements that require that we open up procurements to the world for fair competition. At the same time, we're also trying to achieve industrial and socio-economic benefits for Canada. There's a natural tension between those two dynamics, and this is perhaps most marked in the defence procurement area.
We have a mandate to modernize the Government of Canada's procurement practices so that they're simpler, so that they deploy modern controllership, and that they support economic policy goals, including green and social procurement. As part of this modernization, we started to look at our contracting processes. We're not just looking at our counterparts around the world. We're actually going to the private sector as well to see how businesses have made it simpler to streamline the basic contract forms; and we're also looking at our standing offers and supply arrangements to see if they can be streamlined. It would make it easier for business to sell and for government departments to buy.
Also, and this is a really important piece, we now have out on the street a request for proposal to acquire a new web-based e-procurement solution. I'm not saying it's going to become like Amazon, but that's where we're headed. Essentially, we want to move the Government of Canada procurement function to an e-business model, leveraging industry best practices, and reducing cost and process burdens for federal department and agencies and for suppliers.
Small and medium-sized businesses in Canada get about half of our contracts, and we want to make it easy for them. Ideally, they would eventually be able to do a lot of this off their smart phones, connect with their suppliers, find out what opportunities there are, advertise, and really be able to check contracts and how things are going.
We're also working with my colleagues at National Defence; and also Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada; and representatives from industry associations, to improve our overall approach to contracting for the maintenance and repair of military equipment. There's a lot of focus on the start of contracts, but quite frankly increasingly a lot of work is done in service support and repair of military equipment, because, once you buy it, you have it for about 30 years.
In the old days you would put a contract in place and then let it run for 30 years, but that doesn't work anymore because in-service support means that the procurement life cycle is shorter and more complex. We're actually looking at our existing stock and flow and refreshing some of those contracts to make them, for example, performance-based. Where perhaps we had a fixed price and that worked in the past, now we're saying to companies, we're going to incentivize you. If you perform in the next five years, you might get the next tranche of work, but we're going to see how you do.
We're finding that to be really effective, both from industry's perspective, and also ours. It gives us better value.
Taken together, in our view, some of these initiatives will help modernize the federal procurement function, foster competition and innovation, and also allow us to better leverage procurement to advance economic, social, and green-policy objectives for the benefit of Canada and Canadians.
[Translation]
Thank you very much.
:
That is something I do. Also, it's not just the acquisition but the in-service technical authority; we are working on that.
We are completing a very large program to extend them to 2020. It is in the billions of dollars. We have a very detailed plan to do structural reviews, structural repairs, but also a significant number of upgrades to communications and their sensors. That is happening to all 77 aircraft.
Our estimate of the cost to go from 2020 to 2025 is about $400 million. We're doing work to bring detail to that. It breaks out as follows. Roughly half of that is for spares and maintenance. Irrespective of the aircraft we have—and I assume we have a fighter, which I think is a forgone conclusion—we will spend that money, irrespective of what was in the order of battle.
We have set aside another $200 million, approximately. Our efforts today to do the structural work to 2020 have worked very efficiently. They've worked very well. In fact, they have not been as costly as anticipated. That's because we have a process in which we, literally, take the aircraft completely apart, inspect all of the airframe, all of the structure, and then repair it where needed. In a number of areas there's been less repair required.
Our plan is to continue to do that. We will do as many aircraft as required to 2025. I'm not sure, at this point, how many that will be. We have an annual cycle of revisits. That will be some of the capital piece that we do to life-extend the airframe.
Of that $400 million, we've set aside about 20%—and again, these are rough orders of magnitude—for anticipated upgrades. If all of our allies go to a different set of communications crypto, we would upgrade the aircraft accordingly. That is the intention.
Again, about half of that money will be spent no matter what. It's about $200 million for structure, and potentially other pieces.
From the perspective of extending the life of the aircraft, that's what we'll do. From the context of the operational effectiveness of the aircraft, again, that's something the air force would have to speak to.
:
If I could just go back to your previous point, I don't believe the crash was related to the tail rotor hub issues in the Cormorants.
With the Cyclone there are no cuts being made to the project. There has been a reduction in the budget. I would tell the committee that in the process by which we look at vote 5 capital, my project managers, on a recurring basis through the parliamentary process two years ahead of time, are cash phasing and forecasting what will be the demands on their project. They are trying to estimate what the exchange rates will be, what the rate of delivery will be, what the training will be, and what any number of things will be.
We reprofile those budgets on an annual basis, and in fact are introducing a number of new methods to try to tighten it up, because, quite frankly, in the hundreds of projects that I have, as you roll them they become a significant source of the lapses in the reprofiling that occur. It is very hard to predict, and it's very hard to crystal ball it.
Therefore, the changes in the allocation to the project are really at my request, in what I can spend this fiscal year and next fiscal year. Again, that's working with the supplier Sikorsky and others.
We have delivered about a third of the aircraft. We're transitioning. We're about to start training on what are called the block 1.1 aircraft and continuing through to deliver the greater capability.
We have a very robust plan, and it's a project where a few years ago we really were at loggerheads with the supplier—both sides. We renegotiated that project, and we've really shifted into a method of delivery and introduction of capability that's very positive.
We have the Cyclones at sea now purely for testing. We've done a bunch of ship-helicopter interface testing recently. We're now well into the in-service piece, so it is well on its way to delivering the capability. We've had it at sea on a U.S. range called AUTEC tracking submarines and targets. It has a very impressive capability for that.
The change in budgets, as I say, is really as a result of my organization coming forward and saying through the parliamentary process, through the ARLU, through the estimates, what we need. There have been no cuts imposed on us.
:
It is a project that is in evaluation. In fact, we have just completed this week the flight testing of the second aircraft. We are down to two suppliers in this competition. Again, there are lessons learned from the past—which I talked about early on—about the length of time these aircraft will be in service, such that we do very detailed testing analysis before we proceed with the selection.
We have been out with the Alenia aircraft and the Airbus aircraft. We have done a number of flights and a number of works, and that is completed. The evaluation process is due to end this summer and we will then proceed through the normal approval process internally and, of course, across government. Our target for signing the contract is by the end of this year.
When going out and doing industry consultations, we at times have a tendency to be very aggressive about wanting to take quick delivery. In this case, we talked to all of the aircraft manufacturers, who all told us that with the complexity of this, the order book, and the marshalling of material, the first aircraft would be delivered three years after the contract award. So we are targeting the delivery of the first aircraft at the end of this decade, and with a fairly quick delivery thereafter. Now that's the delivery of the aircraft. There is training, there are trainers, there are spare parts, so we're still a number of years away from that aircraft being in service, wherever it's going to serve, to continue to provide the fixed-wing search and rescue role.
I would tell you that notwithstanding the age of the Buffalos—and again, I am the materiel authority for the Canadian Armed Forces—we don't fly aircraft that are unsafe and that we have a lot of experience, which can be good and bad, in operating older aircraft. These are also aircraft that operate elsewhere in the world, so we are able to get spare parts and have a very rigorous technical airworthiness program to ensure that the current aircraft cannot only meet their function, but are also safe for the people in the Canadian Armed Forces. And for me, that's job one.
:
Thank you very much for that excellent question.
In fact, we are starting to see results.
The goal of the strategy is to better plan where we try to invest. We now have a system that we use to evaluate bids from companies based on what they provide to Canada. It's very mathematic. We determine quotas during the overall bid evaluation, such as 20%, which means that the supplier must attract benefits to Canada amounting to a proportion of 20%, be it jobs or investment in economic research and development.
Our approach is increasingly strategic. This now applies to all military procurement of a certain amount. We are working with Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. We are preparing a map of Canada that would show where the capacity exists. Still, we want to be reasonable. We don't want to force investments where there is no capacity. We want to see investments were capacity already exists in order to feed them. Ultimately, we want to develop capacities that can be part of the global supply chain. That's the goal. The industry is very excited by this direction because it means that it really has a chance.
We have started to put a few nuances in place. We require that it not be exclusive. Therefore, a supplier must not commit itself to a single company. It can take part in several bids. It is very important for the Canadian industry. So small and medium enterprises that try to determine where they should align themselves have a number of options. For the Government of Canada, that means that there is more competition, more innovation, and that's what it wants to encourage.
I hope that answers your question.
:
I think we can predict no better and no worse than anybody else, as you indicate.
I'll speak to ships. I spent a lot of time in that domain. As you indicated, the costs are about one-third acquisition and one-third personnel. If you look at the $100 billion we more or less forecast from a whole-life perspective for the next version of warships, that's what we're talking about. For some of them it would be part of that, meaning personnel costs. We also look at historical costs.
When we developed the through-life costs, the rough order of magnitude numbers, for the surface combatants, it was based on our experience of the Halifax class, the Iroquois class, and things of that nature.
In our budgetary process, of course, we have, on the capital side, the long-term accrual, the long-term budgeting profile. For the operations and maintenance personnel, as you'll appreciate, we have vote 1 done annually in the estimates. So at times we look at the money that's available, and we respond accordingly.
It is hard to predict, but we do have decades of experience of understanding how to do maintenance. There is almost a natural cycle of ebbs and flows. We will look when can we do more heavy maintenance, when we need to defer maintenance, when we can pick it up again, particularly in that long cycle of heavy maintenance.
Beyond the rough order of magnitude estimates, we can't comment on whole-life costs, but we do a lot of work. Our chief financial officer is heavily engaged in that. He has an economist who looks at future costs, including fuel. We have a departmental economic model. We have a cost factors manual that captures all of this on an annual basis. Every year, we capture personnel costs and the cost of operating and maintaining all of our large fleets, as well as the personnel costs, which allow us to see and project into the future. However, it is macro-economic at best.
As we come into more of a three-year profile we do very detailed costing, on maintenance, for example. For the funds that come to me under the national procurement budget—about $2.5 billion a year—we do very detailed work as well. We have a good three to five-year plan, and much rougher order of magnitude estimates downrange.
I think that would be the same for all of our allies. In fact, many of our allies shy away from any kind of through-life life costing. As I talked about, even in the acquisition piece they tend to look at the artifact and try to stay away from infrastructure and other things.
Frankly, I think in Canada we're more forthcoming about looking at the total budget, the total cost. Most of our allies in fact don't go there.
:
Thank you very much for giving me this opportunity to address you on this important study.
[Translation]
I'm sorry, but I didn't have time to send my remarks in advance for translation. However, I have provided copies of my presentation for the interpreters.
[English]
I am going to focus my opening remarks on the issue of Canadian participation in the American strategic system for the ballistic missile defence of North America.
I should note that as an international security policy adviser to the then foreign minister, Joe Clark, in the Mulroney government, I was intensely involved in the Canadian decision not to participate on a government-to-government basis in President Reagan's strategic defense initiative, a decision made by Canada in the height of the Cold War in 1985 on the basis that participation in what was then only a research effort, while prudent for the United States to pursue, did not accord with Canadian defence and security priorities. As everyone is well aware, in 2005 Canada decided again not to participate in what had become a program not only of research but of development.
In a nutshell, my position is that both those decisions not to participate were in accordance with Canadian defence and security priorities, and the same holds true today. I will advance six reasons why Canadian participation in U.S. BMD for North America should not be a Canadian priority.
One, the American BMD system, called GMD, or ground-based midcourse missile defense, is not reliable, despite 30 years of investment and billions of dollars spent.
Two, strategic BMD is a spur for Russia and China to build ever more and better offensive systems in order to overwhelm these defences in case they should ever work and be directed at them. It is infinitely cheaper to build more offensive systems. In other words, BMD has very negative security implications.
Three, as senior DND officials testified before you on March 22, there is no military threat to Canada from either North Korea or Iran. In any event, North Korea is primarily a non-proliferation challenge, and addressing it as such—so successful with Iran—is what should be followed with North Korea.
Four, there is very little likelihood that Canadian participation in missile defence would give Canada the much sought-after seat at the BMD table. In 2004 the United States made the decision to locate the ballistic missile defense command in NORTHCOM, not NORAD, and during our subsequent negotiations on participation would not provide Canada with any guarantee of a meaningful operational role in BMD, or even a guarantee that Canadian cities would be defended.
Five, the fact that European members of NATO are participating in a version of theatre missile defence and regional missile defence is an issue that is entirely separate from whether Canada should participate in a strategic system that does not work for North America. There might be a separate debate as to whether Canada should participate in any way in the NATO systems—for example, on ships—but that is not what is under discussion here.
Six, there will be significant financial costs to Canadian BMD participation at a time—this is what you've been discussing this morning—when the Department of National Defence is facing a veritable abyss of delayed procurement, not to mention a major modernization of the north warning system in about 10 years.
For all these reasons, I argue that it is not in Canada's defence and security interests to pursue participation in the American ballistic missile defence program for North America at this time. Let me pursue just a couple of these reasons in a bit more detail.
On the BMD not working, I leave that for questions for those who want to follow up on it. I'll turn to reason number two, which is the vital arms control dimension, bearing in mind that awhile past I was the Canadian ambassador for disarmament to the UN and have a special interest in those issues.
It is worth briefly recalling why the Soviet Union and the United States agreed to the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty, which severely restricted ballistic missile defences. It was because of a straightforward proposition. It is much easier and much cheaper to build more offensive systems to overwhelm defensive systems like BMD than it is to develop a reliable defensive system, and thus, if pursued, they risk triggering an offensive nuclear arms race.
At a minimum, both Russia and China have to take into account the potential effect of a functioning BMD system negating their retaliatory capability, which in turn means they must keep open the possibility of building up offensive forces as a hedge against U.S. BMD development, whether or not they believe American assertions that right now the system is aimed not at them but at rogue states.
The American BMD system also acts as a catalyst to nuclear weapons modernization, as Russia and China seek not only increased numbers of nuclear weapons but also increased manoeuvrability to evade defences. Preventing these incredibly destabilizing developments was the whole rationale behind the ABM treaty, which George W. Bush abandoned in 2002 in order to pursue the BMD chimera. It is precisely these destabilizing developments that we have seen increasing since then, especially with respect to manoeuvrability.
On reason number three, the low level of threat from North Korea that can best be addressed by the non-proliferation challenge, you've heard some testimony on this, so I'll leave that follow-up for questions.
On reason number four, which is that participation in BMD will not give Canada a meaningful seat at the table, physically sitting at the table does not mean you have a say. In this regard, I would point to the excellent study commissioned by DND, “NORAD in Perpetuity”, dated March 31, 2014, and in particular page 34, which draws the same conclusion.
In the interest of time, I'll not add to my prior comments on the lack of relevance of NATO missile defences to Canadian participation in the U.S. strategic BMD for North America.
On my final point, there will be significant financial costs to Canadian BMD participation at a time when there are so many competing priorities. The “NORAD in Perpetuity” report referenced earlier goes into this issue of costs.
For all these reasons, seeking Canadian participation in BMD at this time, in my view, does not serve Canada's priority defence, security, and non-proliferation interests, and that's what it's all about: what are the priorities? We can't do everything.
I would like to add one further point. On October 28, 2014, in the hearings then being held before this committee on the defence of North America, one of the authors of the above-noted report, “NORAD in Perpetuity”, Professor James Fergusson, gave testimony. He, until that point, had surely been Canada's foremost academic expert on and proponent of Canadian participation in American BMD, but that was not his testimony on that day, October 28, 2014.
He had, after all, worked on the “NORAD in Perpetuity” report, which highlighted the extremely low probability of Canada's getting a meaningful seat at the BMD table, as well as the costs associated with Canadian participation. To these reasons, he added the low level of ballistic missile threat from rogue states and the many pressing needs of National Defence in relation to procurement, not least for “large chunks of the Canadian navy”, as he put it.
For all of these reasons, he stated in answer to a direct question about what priority he would give to BMD, “...it's not one that I would suggest is a high priority right now”.
Thank you. I very much look forward to your questions.
:
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair and members of the committee, for inviting me today. I think this study on North American defence is important, both in the context of the review of defence policy that's ongoing right now and beyond that, because I think the strategic situation surrounding North American defence has appreciably worsened in the last couple of years. I think this study is timely.
For more than two decades, the focus of North American defence and security has been largely on non-state threats, on things like narcotics trafficking and terrorism. I'd argue that Canada is currently quite well positioned to defend itself against those types of threats.
I would argue, though, that we're significantly less well prepared to defend ourselves against state-based threats, such as North Korea and their ballistic missile threats. North Korea has been developing this technology for several years and is now working to put these types of missiles on their submarines. While the United States has developed their ground-based midcourse defense system, which my colleague just referred to, and originally asked Canada to participate in that system, Canada declined to do so. As a result, I think the only thing you can guarantee about ballistic missile defence in Canada is that Canada currently has absolutely no say in potentially defending Canadians.
Beyond ballistic missiles, events over the last two years have reintroduced the need to defend North America against other potential state-based threats. The Russian military has significantly upgraded its air and naval forces in recent years, and it continues to do so. Over the last two years in particular, the Russians have demonstrated this new equipment's effectiveness, as well as a willingness to use it to advance their own interests.
Russian forces successfully employed in Syria a new class of sophisticated conventional air- and sea-launched cruise missiles that have greatly enhanced range, are difficult to observe, and are capable of precision targeting. Three aspects of this development are troubling.
First, these weapons come in both nuclear and conventional variants. Second, they can be carried by long-range Russian patrol aircraft and their newest and most capable submarines, and over the last decade Russia has resumed deploying both of these asset types in and around North America. Third, because of the increased distances at which these new missiles can successfully hit targets and their low observability characteristics, the current arrangements for defending North America against them must be upgraded to counter them effectively.
In sum, Russia has developed and recently used abroad sophisticated new technology that could be deployed against North America, using the same aircraft and submarines that now routinely patrol the air and waters around Canada and the United States. I would argue that it's not a question of whether the Russians are coming, because they're already here; the question is what their intentions are and how we should respond.
As part of the review of Canadian defence policy, I argue that we need to increase our ability to detect and effectively counter this type of state-based activity. Accordingly, I'd recommend five measures be taken to enhance Canada's ability to defend North America.
First, we should seriously examine becoming a full partner in the ballistic defence of North America, and if the terms are agreeable and the Americans are willing, we should join. This would give the Canadian government the ability to potentially defend Canadians from ballistic missiles, something which it cannot do at present.
At a minimum, even if Canada is not threatened directly by North Korea, the United States clearly thinks it is. This means that Canadian citizens could be threatened by an accidental launch or a wayward missile from North Korea, even if it's aimed south of the border. I am personally not sufficiently confident in North Korean missile technology to think that there's zero chance North Korea might hit Vancouver with a missile even if it's aiming at Seattle. Currently, the Canadian government could do absolutely nothing to prevent this from happening.
Second, the increased Russian activity around North America requires that we enhance our ability to know what is happening in our airspace and our maritime approaches, particularly in the Canadian Arctic. Since 2007 the Russians have conducted long-range aviation patrols towards Canada's Arctic airspace, and they've done so in ways that indicate an inclination on their part to link this type of activity to strategic confrontations with Canada elsewhere in the world.
Similarly, Russian submarine patrols in the Atlantic have recently reached levels not seen since the Cold War. To that end, progress should be made to further upgrade and life-extend the existing platforms we currently operate to conduct intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, so that we maintain an awareness of this activity. In the medium and long term, we need to acquire new platforms that would enhance our ability to do so in the future. This should include upgrading the Canadian component of the north warning system with a system better suited to the current and future threat environment.
Third, the government should move quickly to replace our fleet of CF-18 fighter aircraft to maintain our ability to successfully intercept long-range aviation flights approaching Canadian airspace, both today and in the future. Since the government has committed to holding a competition, a competition that is fully open to all interested bidders, it should begin as soon as possible.
Fourth, the government needs to invest in antisubmarine warfare capabilities to be able to counter Russian submarine activity if required. Canada's existing submarines, which are our most capable antisubmarine warfare assets, are rapidly approaching the end of their current lifespan. Options for extending the life of this fleet should be explored in the short term, and a project to acquire new submarines that could patrol all three of Canada's oceans should commence immediately.
Fifth, the government needs to ensure that the Department of National Defence has the needed financial and human resources to acquire modern capital equipment to defend North America. At present, in my assessment it does not.
Under the existing financial arrangements, a number of projects that are needed to maintain a modern capability to defend Canada against aerospace and maritime threats are not included in DND's investment plan and are therefore not funded. A list of unfunded projects would include the upgrade of the north warning system, a replacement of our maritime patrol aircraft, and the life extension and eventual replacement of Canada's submarine fleets. Funding for these projects must be found.
Similarly, the Canadian defence procurement system continues to be unable to acquire needed military equipment on schedule. We just witnessed this last March when almost $4 billion allocated for the procurement of capital equipment was deferred. This was the third time in six years this has happened, so a total of almost $10 billion in capital equipment funding has been pushed into the future, which means that that equipment has not been acquired.
Adequately defending North America requires a better functioning defence procurement system. In my assessment, improving the procurement of military equipment would require, at a minimum, a clear indication by the government that recapitalising the military is actually a priority, a prioritization of the defence equipment projects that National Defence is looking to pursue as part of the defence policy review, streamlining the currently unwieldy process that exists to procure this equipment, and finally, an increase in the capacity of the procurement workforce.
The combination of these measures would make an important improvement in Canada's ability to defend North America in conjunction with the United States.
I would now be happy to take any of your questions.
:
When I was talking about offensive systems, I was talking about the very negative international security and arms control consequences of pursuing missile defences. I'd like to make the point that in my view it's not inconsistent at all to argue that the BMD system, as it's currently configured, doesn't work, but that prudent Russian and Chinese defence planners must hedge against the possibility that it might someday work. That's what defence planning is all about.
I'm not advocating building a massive offensive system, but I would note that among the nine declared nuclear weapon states, we actually have a rather significant modernization program going on. What I was arguing was that the whole logic during the Cold War when the Soviet Union and the United States were facing off at each other—and I argue it holds true today—was that you don't invest in missile defences because they are so easily.... Missile defences are so hard to prevail; they have to be 100% accurate so that nothing can get through. As for offensive systems, the famous Nitze doctrine was that they're “cost-effective”.
The question of cost-effectiveness is at the margins. It will always be cheaper to build more offensive systems. If you go down the road of missile defence, even if you have a somewhat reliable system, which the current one is not, you're pushing on the other side, those who are concerned—Russia and China in particular—to hedge their bets by building more offensive systems and by building more manoeuvrable systems.
Part of the deal in the Cold War was not only that there were no missile defence systems except a very restricted one, but also, there was an agreement to ban the MIRVs, that one missile system that has many independently manoeuvrable warheads. On that, too, the Bush administration gave up when they abandoned the ABM treaty, and now China is pursuing that.
The argument is that there is a lot of evidence of the negative consequences in arms control terms of going down this road and very little on the other side in terms of a positive benefit of this system.
:
I'm going to try to keep it under seven minutes and defer the rest of the time.
I'm going to try to set this up as a bit of a comment and then get you to react. The level of debate we've had here really is very useful for the committee, and it also suggests that there be some further inquiry, that the BMD engagement be not simply thrown off the table, but moved forward.
I want to say that in terms of public perception and the actual value added by it as a Canadian mechanism to be engaged in, it needs to be compartmentalized; it needs to be confined, to be reduced in scope below what is currently perceived to be BMD.
The first thing I want to do is commend you, Ms. Mason, for your tremendous work on disarmament and non-proliferation. These must remain at the fulcrum, because it is in these areas that the real threats are.
By the same token, BMD has to be a combination basically of perfection in terms of its functionality, but also of confinement of its scale to its current level. The minute we scale up, it's going to be a political threat to Russia and China, and as you correctly point out, there will be a response strategically by those two countries. BMD, then, needs to remain in the paradigm of older technology and rogue states and of potential slippage into the hands of non-state actors, because technology that ended up pretty easily in the hands of North Korea and Iran may well in the future end up in the hands of a non-state entity.
The risk level, really, is a combination of likelihood and severity of impact, and even though the likelihood may not be great, the severity of impact would be tremendous. We should therefore work towards improving it, but we should definitely politically work to keeps its scale confined and, in the eyes of Russia and China, be very clear that it is being kept confined and aimed at rogue entities.
With that setup, what I would suggest is that there is a research and development opportunity for Canada in the area of perfecting the system. The committee received testimony on and in fact witnessed the demonstration of the system, to the point of seeing that the imperfection really lies, as my colleague has correctly pointed out, in the use of decoys and the inability of the defence system in the future potentially to recognize correctly what the re-entry vehicle is.
If research and development could be aimed at that point in the fulcrum, to better keep track in the future of the actual threat rather than decoys that have been deployed with other projectiles or even in the same projectile, there would be an opportunity for us to engage at potentially a reasonable cost but also to gain the credibility of being active on the file. What the seat really entails is an operational question. We have a tremendous seat at the table through NORAD, and we could deepen it, as you point out, Mr. Perry, through engagement on BMD.
I'll leave it there for you each to comment for a couple of minutes on your reactions.
:
I'll pick up on a couple of things there.
The math that you're illustrating, I think captures the fact that this is not a destabilizing system. There are less than 50 interceptors at present that physically have to hit an incoming missile. The Russians have thousands of ballistic missiles of their own, and the Chinese have multiple hundreds. Just based on the sheer math and the way they're going to be employed, right now I don't see how this could be more widely destabilizing.
I think the use of that system, even against a rogue state, to deal with the different decoy issues is one where you.... You don't have a lot of ability to defend yourself against many different types of attacks, just because of the limitations and the strict math. If there were an opportunity for Canada to participate in terms of research and development, I think that would be an added bonus, but I think the main reason to do this is to provide for the security of Canadians.
To touch on something that was raised earlier about the issue of the threat and whether or not this is a direct threat to Canada, the traditional definition is that a threat is a mix of capability and intent. The North Koreans have the capability. Maybe right now we don't think they have the intent to actually directly target Canada, but again, I would say that it's more than 8,000 kilometres across the Pacific, and Victoria—I checked just before coming—is about 130 kilometres from Seattle as the crow flies, while I think that for Vancouver it's under 250 kilometres.
I don't think it's unreasonable to think that even if you're aiming for Seattle, where there are major industrial-based considerations with the Boeing plant in the region and with major United States military installations in that region.... If Seattle is viewed as a strategic target by some rogue state, I don't think it's at all implausible to think that one of those missiles may end up on the Canadian side of the border even if the intent were to go further south. We don't know what could happen in terms of the North Koreans' intent in the future, and that may change, but if you don't have a capability or any ability on your own to have any possibility of defending yourself against that, then you're left to the fortunes of others.