The first part of my presentation will be in English and the second half will be in French.
Good morning, Chair, vice-chairs, and members of the committee.
I would like to thank you for inviting me today to speak today on the Canadian labour market in the context of the committee’s study of labour market development agreements. My remarks will largely relate to the recent work of my office on the Canadian labour market, as well as our ongoing work on the Canadian labour market stemming from parliamentarians’ requests.
The Canadian labour market continues to recover from the depths of the 2008-09 recession. However, many labour market indicators continue to remain below their trend levels. At the same time, unemployment remains above trend levels, particularly among youth. Unemployment for those 15 to 19 remains well above trend, while underemployment for those aged 20 to 24 is more prevalent. Together, these factors contribute to a level of real output of the Canadian economy that remains below its potential.
As would be expected in an economy that is below its potential, wage growth in Canada has remained muted relative to growth observed before the 2008-09 recession. More specifically, real average wage growth has been lower through the recovery in all sectors of the economy relative to a comparable pre-recession period. Together, this evidence points to an excess supply of labour in Canada. However, an argument has been extended that there is instead a labour shortage in Canada.
The PBO has found no evidence in support of a national labour shortage in Canada.
Some provinces may be experiencing a tighter labour market than was the case prior to the 2008-09 recession. Labour shortages may exist in specific sub-provincial regions, sectors, or occupations. However, the PBO found no evidence of a national skills mismatch that is any more acute than prior to the 2008-09 recession. This same conclusion holds true at the provincial level. As in the case of labour shortages, this aggregate data does not preclude skills mismatches in specific sub-provincial regions, sectors, or occupations.
In reaching our conclusions regarding labour shortages and skills mismatches, the PBO used data from the Bank of Canada, Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Federation of Independent Business, and Statistics Canada. Job vacancy data was used from the latter three of these sources.
The differences in these data and the conclusions they led to point to some glaring gaps in labour demand data in Canada.
First, no job vacancy data extends back further than the first quarter of 2004, and therefore, do not go over a full business cycle. As a result, it is difficult to support the assertion made in Finance Canada’s February 2014 jobs report that “Canadian firms are experiencing more difficulty in hiring than the unemployment situation would normally warrant.”
Second, job vacancy data are gathered, compiled, and presented very differently. For instance, Conference Board of Canada numbers are derived from raw data on job postings from a large number of websites, less duplicates and redundant postings where these are identified. However, the number of vacancies can differ significantly depending on the treatment of anonymous postings, as evidenced by the marked difference in the job vacancy rate presented in the February 2014 jobs report, and that derived from the number of vacancies presented in the EI monitoring and assessment report 2012-13.
Further, CFIB and Statistics Canada surveys identify the sector in which the firms with vacancies fall as opposed to the occupation for which the vacancy exists. For example, a construction company looking for an administrative assistant would be classified as having a vacancy in the construction sector, as opposed to a vacancy among administrative assistants.
[Translation]
I will continue in French.
Third, with the exception of Statistics Canada data, none of these sources collect job vacancies in a manner that corresponds with internationally accepted definitions of employment and unemployment. As a consequence of all these gaps, the current picture of labour demand in Canada is very vague. This was also the conclusion reached in the 2009 Final Report of the Advisory Panel on Labour Market Information, entitled Working Together to Build a Better Labour Market Information System for Canada. To quote from the report:
A good [Labour Market Information] LMI system will help to improve the matching of people and jobs both in times of labour shortages and high unemployment. And a good LMI system is always necessary to make sure that the right policy decisions are made to improve the economy's performance and lower unemployment [...] it was not surprising that many stakeholders voiced the need for a job vacancy survey to assess labour demand across regions and through time. This is important to policy makers to determine the tightness of the labour market enhanced for the development of the appropriate policies and programs for macroeconomic management and an efficient labour market.
In 2011, Statistics Canada undertook a survey entitled Workplace Survey: Jobs Vacancies and Skills Shortages — 2011. However, following the collection of this data in 2011, Statistics Canada did not have the available resources to validate, analyze and disseminate the results. Consequently, this data has not yet been released publicly, although Employment and Social Development Canada has stated publicly that it will be paying for the completion of the work on this survey. Nonetheless, even if it were to be released today, given this data was collected for 2011, it would no longer provide an overview of the current state of labour demand in Canada, but rather the state that existed in 2011.
In summary, parliamentarians have very little information on the current state of labour demand in Canada on which to base those decisions. As a result, it is difficult to analyze the effectiveness of programs aimed that alleviating labour market pressure associated with labour shortages and skills mismatches, such as Labour Market Development Agreements or the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP). Consequently, to satisfy the request of a parliamentarian for PBO to analyze the impact of the TFWP on the Canadian labour market, we submitted an information request to obtain data on temporary foreign workers by location and occupation in order to assess whether the impact of the TFWP on the supply of labour has been statistically significant. We continue to wait for a response.
My colleague Mostafa Askari, who is the Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, and I would be happy to respond to your questions.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
As was stated, I'm the president of the Canadian Construction Association. We represent the non-residential construction sector in Canada. Essentially our members build everything except single-family dwellings.
You heard from our sister association, the Canadian Home Builders' Association, about two days ago. I'm tempted to just say “ditto” and leave, but I think I'm going to fill in the blanks and maybe provide some of the supporting information for some of the testimony you've heard.
Together with our friends in the residential sector, the construction industry in Canada employs over 1.3 million people. That is a record employment level for our industry. We've been sustaining record employment levels for some time now. Even when we lost workers during the recession, we made that up almost immediately, very shortly after the recession first hit.
We certainly appreciate the opportunity to be here. With this size of employment, you can well imagine that we are employers who are extremely interested in the subject matter before you.
I have three recommendations for the committee with respect to the specific subject matter you are looking at, but I'd like to set the table first, to give you a snapshot of where we are particularly in the non-residential sector of the construction industry.
We have a perfect storm happening. Canada's construction market, according to Oxford Economics, is now the fifth-largest construction market in the world. For a population the size of Canada's, that's saying something when you're up there with China, the United States, India, and Japan. It projects that over the next decade, Canada will remain in the fifth or sixth position. Russia may edge us out.
We're having unprecedented demand for our services, primarily from the resource sector and from large public infrastructure projects, especially in the transit area. Canada's public infrastructure is reaching that 45- to 55-year life and needs a massive overhaul and renewal. So we have that going on.
At the same time, we have an extremely aging demographic in our industry—and I did hear the previous witness—and we have excellent labour market intelligence, coming from a sector council that the industry established, which has all participants at the table, including labour and including owners who rely on our services.
They project demand for our industry out over an eight- to ten-year period. Then, as typical economists will do, they look at the supply side and say, “Where are we going to be with respect to our labour supply in terms of how many people are going through the apprenticeship system right now?”
The provincial governments are part of that exercise, providing excellent information on how many apprentices there are and what the labour supply looks like. That's being done by something called BuildForce Canada. I highly recommend that you visit their website. It tracks the supply and demand in the non-residential sector of the industry as well as in the residential sector.
What do they say? They say that by 2023 we will need to find 300,000 new workers just to replace those who are going to be retiring in the intervening years, and to keep pace with our rising demand. Often when people look at where your labour supply needs are and what you need in terms of your labour market, they forget to factor in projected demand.
With all due respect, most of the economic studies done with respect to labour supply are looking in the rear-view mirror and using old statistics. For an industry like ours, and the size of our industry, where a lot of our training in our specific trades takes four to five years, we can't be looking in the rear-view mirror. We have to be looking straight ahead and using a GPS system to tell us where we should be going. Labour market information, for us, is all about looking forward, not looking backward.
Where will these 300,000 workers come from? In fact, BuildForce Canada looks at how much of that can be dealt with and sourced in Canada. It finds that almost half will be sourced in Canada. There is, however, a shortfall of about 100,000 to 120,000, who, they say, are going to have to come from outside the construction industry or indeed outside Canada.
Now, I want to stop right there and say that the first preferred option of all of our employers is to hire Canadians and permanent residents. Absolutely that's what we want to do. That's our preferred option.
In fact if you look at our industry's usage of the temporary foreign worker program—and I'm using the 2012 stats, the most recent available—at the peak our industry was bringing in about 12,000 temporary foreign workers. That's less than 1% of the 1.3 million I just mentioned. Many of the reasons why we were bringing them in as temporary foreign workers were that for a long time the front door, permanent entry, was closed to us because of that silly 100-point system.
So the best way for us to get permanent workers was to bring them in on temporary visas, get their 12-month experience, have them go through a Canadian experience class, or indeed, through a provincial nominee program. We want permanent workers. We want workers for our future labour needs.
Interprovincial mobility is a huge area for us, and you know there isn't one solution for us in our labour market needs. Immigration's part of it, but it's only part of it. We realize for labour mobility we have to be better at getting the workers where the work is. That's the other perfect storm element we're facing.
Our projects are getting bigger just by the very nature of the types of projects. ReNew Canada publishes on an annual basis the top 100 public infrastructure projects in Canada. The latest report says of the top 100, 44 are individually valued at $1 billion or more.
Now I can remember 10 to 15 years ago, if you asked me how many billion-dollar projects there were in Canada, I could use one hand and not have to use all five digits. We are seeing that expanding. Natural Resources Canada has said there are some 600 large projects that are going to have to be done within the next decade worth over $650 billion.
Certainly our foreign competitors know how hot the Canadian market is. All the big European companies are here right now.
I better speed up. Otherwise I'll not get to my recommendations.
Our first recommendation is with respect to labour market information. Absolutely we need that, but we define labour market information as looking through the front window with a good GPS system, not looking in the rear-view mirror. We ask you to take a look at what BuildForce Canada is doing. It's an excellent approach that should be duplicated by other industries and other sectors.
Quite frankly, speaking for our industry, we like to do our own LMI because we trust it a heck of a lot more than something coming from government, with all due respect. The Job Bank does a great job of having a snapshot of where we are currently, but it's still not looking out, and we have to look out.
Secondly, and I think you have heard this from all witnesses, there has to be more employer engagement in determining where training dollars should be spent, particularly with LMDA funds. Why? Because employers are a major contributor. It comes from EI funds. Government's money? No. Employers and employees pay into the EI fund, and employers pay $1.40 for every dollar labour puts in, so let's stop this myth right now that business doesn't pay attention to training.
On a $1.95 billion expenditure just under LMDA alone, my calculations say $1.1 billion of that comes from employers in this country. So they should have a say, and we would argue that say should, again, be replicated at the provincial and regional level because there are unique differences in our country. Indeed, labour markets, as other witnesses have said, are different from one segment of the country to another. We need more employer engagement.
I'm not pointing a finger at governments and saying they failed to do that. To a great degree industry itself has failed to be at the table and be involved in that.
Our third recommendation is to avoid an “Ottawa knows best” approach to the development and management of these EI programs. The labour needs across the country are diverse. So from our perspective, leave the management of the programs with the provinces, but find a way to have true employer engagement in that model.
I think I'm going to stop there, Mr. Chair. I would like to entertain some questions about what you heard from the previous witness about whether or not there's a skills shortage in our industry. I can tell you there is and it is somewhat regional, but we have some big challenges ahead.
:
Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thanks to the committee for inviting Cameco Corporation to share with you our views on the challenges and opportunities in developing and delivering workforce training programs in remote areas of the country.
For those of you who don't know, Cameco, headquartered in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, is one of the world’s largest producers of mined uranium used for clean energy production. The majority of our production comes from our four mining and milling operations in northern Saskatchewan.
Our mandate as a northern Saskatchewan operation is to maximize the participation in our workforce of people who live in communities located within the northern administrative district of Saskatchewan. This district is home to only 36,000 people, or roughly 3% of the population of the province. However, those individuals are scattered in communities that amount to about 40% of the terrain of the province.
Despite this geographic and obvious demographic challenge, we are proud that in our company’s 25-year history we have steadily built our local workforce to the point now where one in two, or 50%, of our employees who work at our four northern operations are local to the region.
Through agreements with the Province of Saskatchewan, these employees are classified as residents of Saskatchewan’s north, or RSNs. About 90% of RSNs are of aboriginal background, reflecting the actual makeup of these communities in the north. For an actual head count, about 1,500 of our mine site jobs today are held by workers of first nation and Métis heritage—that would be a combination of both our own employees and our contractors—making Cameco the largest industrial employer of aboriginal people in Canada.
Our success so far in advancing aboriginal employment has been accomplished through well-designed recruitment programs, training partnerships with government and aboriginal agencies, as well as accommodations by unions and clear management policies. We intend to continue building on those achievements in the future. We also believe the federal government can and should remain a participant with our industry and the Province of Saskatchewan in advancing education and skills training for people in remote northern communities.
We know this isn't an easy challenge. Saskatchewan’s largest post-secondary institutions are located in Saskatoon, Regina, and Prince Albert. The town of La Ronge, which is the biggest community in Saskatchewan’s north, is also home to a regional college, Northlands College. But even La Ronge and Northlands are still located hundreds of kilometres south of the seven key first nations and Métis communities in what is known as the Athabasca Basin. I should point out that these communities in the basin include three Dene first nation communities that still lack year-round, all-weather road connections.
Despite these challenges, there are still several hundred employees from the Athabasca Basin communities connected to our mines and mills through employment, benefiting from our long-standing practice of operating our mines on a fly-in, fly-out basis. The challenge, however, remains that half the working-age population in the north does not possess a proper grade 12 education. In order to bolster the ranks of our aboriginal workforce, we continue to scour northern communities for good employment prospects, and work with educational institutions and government to upgrade educational achievement so that more people can find themselves eligible for employment within the industry.
Current labour market development agreements negotiated by the federal government and the Government of Saskatchewan have thus done a good job in working with communities and individuals in advancing foundational training. At two of our operations, we have full-time workplace educators who work in partnership with the college, that being Northlands College. These workplace educators provide GED upgrading and skills training to both our employees and contractors.
But in order to increase the participation rate of northerners at our mining operations, there is a need for more cooperative efforts to increase opportunities for advanced training. One way to do that is to increase the number of apprentices who can be taken in and supported by industry. Cameco currently has 17 apprentices, all of whom are northern aboriginal residents. Initially these 17 apprentices must do some compulsory course work at a post-secondary institution in either Prince Albert or Saskatoon. After placement at one of our operations, workplace educators assist these apprentices in providing further academic support.
We are excited by the possibility that proposed changes to the LMDA program could allow companies to provide additional training opportunities such as apprenticeships. We are encouraged to see that there appears to be aspects of the Canada job grant program that are well aligned to both our company’s and our industry’s needs. We think it quite valuable that companies could work with existing employees to access funds for training to boost their skill levels.
Employees working for Cameco already have advantages and opportunities to advance, especially in the north, through our career transition program. It identifies and encourages high-performing, motivated northern residents to make the transition within the workforce to a higher-level occupation. Today, we currently pay for their tuition and books for technical school or university, pay their wages while they attend school, and employ them during the summer break in the new occupations that they ultimately desire to obtain. Then, we hire them back into their fields once they complete their education.
Not everyone is suited for, or ready for, an extended period of time outside the home community attending a post-secondary institution. Having more trade apprentices learning and working on site, and being supported by a program such as the Canada job grant, would increase the number of people with the opportunities for advancement in their mining careers.
Only if there is an upward progression within our operations can we see further permanent gains in the level of aboriginal employment in our region. Federal support for enhanced training opportunities, which support this type of upward progression for motivated individuals, would benefit not only the individuals but ultimately society as a whole, by creating a better educated and better compensated taxpayer.
I thank you for your attention.
:
Well, I guess from my perspective the BuildForce Canada model is a model that certainly our industry thinks is ideal for our sector. I'm no expert in all the details of that model, but essentially what happens is that they use an economic model from an economist that they engaged, which builds the information from the regions up.
They will go into British Columbia, Alberta, and different regions and talk to construction owners to get an idea of what the demand is going to be for construction activities over their subject period. They will then talk with the provinces to get data on how many actual construction people are in the occupations they track. They track some 33 occupations, and not just trades but supervisory people as well.
They then test that information against small forums that bring in labour, employers, and the training community, so that they have some way of bouncing it off the people who have the boots on the ground, if you will. Based on that, they create a prognosis, or a projection, provincially, regionally, and nationally, based upon that model. They update it on an annual basis. It does change and can fluctuate. With the size of some of these projects, if a project gets delayed by six months, you can imagine that it's going to have an impact on the demand side.
Now, this is based on the sector council that we put together some time ago. We fund the sector council's infrastructure. It's difficult, I think, for some of the other industry sectors to raise the funds to fund a sector council, but we've been able to get all of the players to the table, including labour and owners, to fund that mechanism, because we all agree that the information derived from that effort is absolutely essential for planning our long-term labour market needs.
I would say to look to the BuildForce Canada model.
:
Yes, that's a good question and definitely one that our company addresses head-on.
I would say we are unique and different from many other organizations, including many in the resource sector. We do not, and haven't for some time, waited for candidates to come to us seeking employment, who are then told they're not qualified. We're active in communities in various forms—community dialogue tables, visits, whatever it is—and have been cataloguing people's current skill sets, education, and employment aspirations. We are trying to triage that to see where they're short today so that they can actually enhance their application.
That is different from what you'll see from the bulk of the organizations involved in some sort of industry or commerce, because in most of those types of activities, you simply come to that organization and you're either qualified or you're not. If you're not, you're told to go away and get the qualifications and come back when you're qualified.
Well, we don't have that luxury because of how we operate our four northern work locations. We have the agreements with the Government of Saskatchewan that I talked about, which hold us to standards for local employment. We do not have the luxury of simply telling people, “I'm sorry, you're not qualified”. We actually have to work with them to define those qualifications, and find ways in which the training in and around those communities can benefit them so that they're on a path for employment.
It doesn't always happen and it doesn't always happen instantaneously, so it becomes a challenge for us. As I previously said, when those roles are upskilled, we're simply moving the goal posts out for people. If having a GED or high school diploma was satisfactory for entry-level employment 10 years ago, that's likely not going to be satisfactory in the future. We have that challenge to deal with as well because workplaces automate. There is more equipment there, and there are risks to all employees if people don't understand basic safety manuals or if there are literacy or numeracy gaps. There is a risk to the whole industrial complex if they're not able to follow those written or verbal instructions.
There is no question that remains a challenge for us.